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Research — Forensic Equity Analysis
Forensic Equity Research

Research.

Personal forensic analysis of Colombo Stock Exchange listed companies — quality-of-earnings flags, accounting reality checks, and hidden green flags. Written as an analytical exercise to surface observations that standard broker coverage tends to miss.

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Not investment advice. All research on this page reflects personal analytical views by DamithInvest, who is not registered with the SEC of Sri Lanka as an investment advisor or broker. Terms like "positive", "neutral", "negative", and "red flag / green flag" are personal observations based on public filings — not buy, sell, or hold recommendations. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.
Filter: All Forensic Thesis Sector Macro
▲ Forensic 24 APR 2026
The LOLC illusion
LOLC · BIL · BRWN · LOFC · LGIL
A deep dive into how five tickers share one ultimate beneficial owner — and how a single LKR 54.5B non-cash bargain-purchase gain from the Lipton acquisition inflates group earnings by 105% of pre-tax profit.
▲ 14 red flags ● 11 green flags ● 5 tickers
→
Coming soon IN PROGRESS
Hayleys at the edge
HAYL · HEXP · DPL · HOPL · HHL
Hayleys retains AAA(lka) but Q3 2025 interims show LKR 160B short-term debt against thin cash cover, negative FCF, and subsidiary breaches of debt/EBITDA. Tail risk is rollover failure on macro shock — not operational collapse.
▲ 8 identified ● 3 identified
Coming soon IN PROGRESS
The Allbirds pattern
CSE micro-cap pump candidates
Piotroski/Altman-screened flagging of distressed micro-cap shells pivoting to narrative-driven AI/infrastructure stories. Distinguishing substantive pivots from pure speculative front-running.
◆ Screen-based ● Updated weekly
Coming soon IN PROGRESS
Wartime portfolio positioning
Sector allocation · SL + global
Necessity consumption, domestic fertilizer producers, defense, renewables, healthcare. Historical drawdown analysis from 1973, 1979, 2008, 2020 and base-case sector weights for chaos-economy scenarios.
◆ Macro thesis ● Multi-sector

The inwestout research methodology

Every dossier is built on three layers of evidence: (1) the company's own audited filings — IFRS numbers from annual reports and CSE interim releases; (2) market-side reality checks via TradingView TTM data and CSE price history; and (3) quantitative screens from the inwestout CSE Terminal flagging quality-of-earnings divergences.

The goal is simple: catch the accounting tricks before the market does. Sri Lankan conglomerates perennially rely on revaluation gains, bargain-purchase accounting, divestment windfalls, and biological-asset fair-value movements to polish headline earnings. Stripping those out reveals the real cash-generative core — or the absence of it.

▲ Quality-of-Earnings

PAT / Operating Cash Flow > 1.5× flags earnings not backed by cash.

▲ Gain-on-PBT ratio

Fair-value + bargain gains / PBT > 25% signals accounting-driven profit.

▲ EPS divergence

Reported EPS vs TTM EPS gap > 30% means recent quarters rolled over.

● Piotroski F-Score

Nine-point checklist on profitability, leverage, efficiency. ≥7 is quality.

● Altman Z-Score

Bankruptcy probability model. <1.8 = distress zone, >3 = safe.

● EWMA sentiment

λ=0.94 exponential weighting on news flow for near-term catalysts.