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◆ CSE · Independent Research

Independent research
on the Colombo
Stock Exchange.

Quality-of-earnings analysis, accounting reality checks, and governance deep dives on CSE-listed companies — built to surface what broker coverage misses.

30
Reports published
18+
Tickers covered
150+
Risk flags found
Aug 2026
Last updated
Followed by 116,000+ investors across platforms — 67K+ Facebook 17K+ Instagram 27K+ TikTok 5K+ YouTube
Deep Dive · Price Stagnation
JKH
▲ FCF/EBITDA ~8%
◆ Deep Dive · Price Stagnation
Why Has John Keells Holdings Stayed Near Rs.20 Despite Record Earnings?
JKH.N0000 · Rs.20.00 · EBITDA Rs.80bn (+75%) · FCF/EBITDA ~8%
Group EBITDA is up 75% and CODSL, WCT, and BYD are all finally profitable — yet the adjusted share price is up only 19.3% in 6.5 years vs. the ASPI's +256%. Twelve hypotheses tested against 6.5 years of daily trading data, CSE filings, and the FY2025/26 Annual Report: the nominal subdivision, crossing trades, ownership shifts, and why FCF conversion is only ~8% of EBITDA.
▲ FCF/EBITDA ~8%◆ 12 hypotheses◆ 16 sections
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45-Yr Data Study · IPO Bubble
9,343 IPOs
◆ 45-yr dataset
◆ 45-Yr Data Study · IPO Bubble
The Pop Is the Trap: 45 Years of IPO Data vs. SpaceX & SK hynix
SPCX + SKHY · Nasdaq · Ritter dataset 1980-2024 · 9,343 IPOs
Big first-day pops predict bad 3-year returns (correlation −0.38 across 45 cohorts). 60% of all IPOs lose money in 3 years. We test the framework live: SK hynix (fwd P/S ~4.5×, profitable) vs. SpaceX (~94× sales at IPO) — the two largest listings in history, opposite buckets.
◆ 45-yr dataset● SKHY quality check▲ SPCX flagged
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Change of Control
ASPH
▲ 3 governance items
◆ Change of Control
ASPH: The anatomy of a shell takeover
ASPH.N0000 · 50.16% block · Peliyagoda leasehold
A binding 7 Jul 2026 agreement hands control of a company that hasn't made asphalt since 2021 to a well-capitalised consortium. Stock +60% in a day. A Rs.1.85bn revalued plot, a stalled below-book land sale, and a seller's stake that matches to the exact share since 2020.
▲ 3 governance items● Land value trail◆ Deal timeline
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Macro · Liquidity
ASPI
▲ Liquidity drought
◆ Macro · Liquidity
Why is the CSE weak? An evidence-based diagnosis
ASPI · S&P SL20 · Market Structure
Price down only 8.5% from the January peak — but daily turnover has collapsed over 70% and foreign investors sold a net Rs.33.7bn in H1. A data-driven look at the rate shock, rupee slide, and the structural gaps slowing recovery.
▲ Liquidity drought● Ranked causes◆ Signal checklist
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Speculative Watch
BOGA
▲ 53× P/E
◆ Speculative Watch
Bogala Graphite: World-Class Asset, Speculative Valuation
BOGA.N0000 · LKR 155 · Mkt cap LKR 14.7Bn · FY ended 31 Dec 2025
The world's only pure-play Ceylon vein graphite producer — 86.46% owned by German GK (being acquired by Asbury Carbons for USD 65M). Operating cash flows are high quality (104.5% OCF conversion). But at 53× P/E, 32× EBITDA, and FCF yield below 1%, the market is pricing a battery-grade anode pivot and EV supply chain revenues that are MoU-stage, not contract-stage. Fundamental fair value: LKR 21–38. Jun 23 volume spike (805K shares, Rs. 120.8M) shows the stock remains driven by narrative, not earnings.
▲ 53× P/E● High OCF quality◆ 13.54% float
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Sector Analysis · 6 Stocks Ranked · FY26
Utilities
VPEL attractive† · P/E ~5.4× · Rs.17.8Bn revenue
▤ Sector Deep-Dive
Sri Lanka Utilities FY26: 6 Stocks, 1 Radar Chart, Clear Rankings
WIND.N0000 · VLL.N0000 · VPEL.N0000 · HPWR.N0000 · LVEF.N0000 · PAP.N0000 · ~595 MW
Full sector comparison of all six listed Sri Lanka renewable energy stocks — spider-web scorecard, margin wars, debt stress test, capacity league table, individual flags, and DCF scenarios. VPEL wins on fundamentals (83.5% GP, D/E 0.23x, P/E ~5.4x — even bear-case DCF Rs. 18 is above today's Rs. 15.1). HPWR is most at risk (D/E 1.57x, interest cover 1.5x). PAP's 150% capacity jump in FY26 is the growth story of the sector.
● VPEL attractive▲ HPWR caution
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Browse all 30 research reports
JAT, WindForce, Hayleys, PickMe, LOLC, JKH, CSE Utilities sector + more →
View all research →
!
Not investment advice. All research reflects personal analytical views by DamithInvest, who is not registered with the SEC of Sri Lanka as an investment advisor or broker. "Red flag / green flag", "Attractive / Positive / Neutral / Monitor / Caution" and similar signals are personal analytical assessments based on public filings — they do not constitute buy, sell, or hold recommendations. Consult a licensed advisor.
Research methodology
Every dossier is built on three layers: (1) IFRS numbers from audited annual reports and CSE interim releases; (2) market-side reality checks via TradingView TTM data and CSE price history; and (3) quantitative screens from the inwestout CSE Terminal flagging quality-of-earnings divergences.

▲ Quality-of-Earnings

PAT / Operating Cash Flow >1.5× flags earnings not backed by cash.

▲ Gain-on-PBT ratio

Fair-value + bargain gains / PBT >25% signals accounting-driven profit.

▲ EPS divergence

Reported EPS vs TTM EPS gap >30% means recent quarters rolled over.

● Piotroski F-Score

Nine-point profitability, leverage and efficiency checklist. ≥7 is quality.

● Altman Z-Score

Bankruptcy probability model. <1.8 = distress zone, >3 = safe.

● EWMA sentiment

λ=0.94 exponential weighting on news flow for near-term catalysts.